Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.008792 0.009921 0.011143 0.012562 0.014166 0.015923 0.017995
2025-12-21 0.006749 0.008245 0.009996 0.012199 0.014899 0.018105 0.022208
2025-12-28 0.005930 0.007652 0.009782 0.012613 0.016285 0.020896 0.027144
2026-01-04 0.005288 0.007136 0.009526 0.012849 0.017363 0.023299 0.031729
2026-01-11 0.004822 0.006763 0.009373 0.013147 0.018485 0.025791 0.036602
2026-01-18 0.004320 0.006271 0.008986 0.013052 0.019012 0.027468 0.040446
2026-01-25 0.003930 0.005886 0.008695 0.013039 0.019618 0.029263 0.044575
2026-02-01 0.003547 0.005468 0.008307 0.012828 0.019887 0.030553 0.048021
2026-02-08 0.003290 0.005212 0.008130 0.012907 0.020580 0.032511 0.052636
2026-02-15 0.003024 0.004913 0.007857 0.012801 0.020959 0.033988 0.056582
2026-02-22 0.002871 0.004779 0.007826 0.013073 0.021955 0.036511 0.062435
2026-03-01 0.002602 0.004429 0.007415 0.012677 0.021800 0.037117 0.065084
2026-03-08 0.002393 0.004168 0.007134 0.012484 0.021989 0.038337 0.068947
2026-03-15 0.002177 0.003875 0.006776 0.012129 0.021863 0.039000 0.071881
2026-03-22 0.002109 0.003836 0.006851 0.012541 0.023129 0.042212 0.079723
2026-03-29 0.002018 0.003748 0.006831 0.012775 0.024086 0.044931 0.086870
2026-04-05 0.001944 0.003682 0.006846 0.013072 0.025177 0.047977 0.094901
2026-04-12 0.001822 0.003518 0.006663 0.012978 0.025508 0.049603 0.100273
2026-04-19 0.001721 0.003385 0.006529 0.012965 0.025993 0.051555 0.106454
2026-04-26 0.001604 0.003212 0.006306 0.012755 0.026065 0.052691 0.111047
2026-05-03 0.001530 0.003119 0.006229 0.012833 0.026724 0.055052 0.118402
2026-05-10 0.001442 0.002989 0.006070 0.012728 0.026992 0.056626 0.124196
2026-05-17 0.001399 0.002949 0.006090 0.012998 0.028071 0.059975 0.134154